In Syria, Obama must win trust to beat Islamic State

By Tom Perry and Suleiman Al-Khalidi

BEIRUT/AMMAN (Reuters) - Before the United States can beat Islamic State in Syria, it will have to win the confidence of mainstream Sunni rebels who blame Washington for leaving them outgunned by the Islamists and further than ever from toppling President Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. President Barack Obama has identified the moderate opposition to Assad as a potential partner in Syria against Islamic State, the radical group that has also seized territory in Iraq in an effort to reshape the Middle East.

But more than three years into the civil war, rebel groups that do not espouse a hardline Islamist vision are struggling to make a mark on the battlefield, which is dominated by Islamic State and the Nusra Front, an al Qaeda affiliate. Some experts say the moderates are in danger of being wiped out altogether.

In some places, notably in a crucial fight for Aleppo, they are battling both Islamic State and the government at once.

The rebels are in desperate need of arms. But some fighters on the ground also question the merits of allying with Western states who they say have failed them as they challenge a state backed by Iran and Russia.

"Why should I believe Obama and put myself in a confrontation with the Islamists while my main enemy, Assad, watches on?" said one rebel commander in a brigade affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) - a loose collection of non-Islamist rebel groups that emerged in 2011.

His caution underscores the complexities facing Western states considering how to confront the Islamic State in Syria after the group swept through Iraq in June and declared a cross-border "caliphate" claiming authority over the world's Muslims.

While the United States has been able to team up with Iraqi government and Kurdish forces against Islamic State in Iraq, where it has launched air strikes on the group, it has no such partners in Syria. The moderates are weak, and Western policy towards Syria is built on the idea of Assad leaving power. Offers of cooperation from Damascus have been shunned.

KERRY TOURS CAPITALS

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Baghdad on Wednesday in a tour to build military, political and financial support to defeat the Islamic State militants. The tour will also include Saudi Arabia and probably other Arab capitals.

Obama has said more resources need to be devoted to the moderate Sunni opposition. But with the Syrian insurgency having taken a strongly Islamist character, some rebels on the ground are now worried about being seen to be supported by the West.

Some are even seeking clerical opinions on whether it would be permissible to fight alongside the United States if it launched air strikes against Islamic State in Syria, for example, said a rebel in Deir al-Zor province, which is mostly controlled by the group.

Obama, due to outline his strategy for combating Islamic State later on Wednesday, has signalled that Sunni Muslim states in the region must play a role.

"The question is: Is Saudi Arabia, or another Muslim country instead of America and the West, able to help us fight?" said the fighter, who was recently forced to surrender his weapons to Islamic State.

But Western and some Arab policymakers face another concern: that, by going after Islamic State without confronting Assad, they will have indirectly sided with him and his minority-led Alawite administration.

Mohamed Sarmini, an opposition official who met with U.S. officials as recently as last week, said Islamic State had been top of the U.S. agenda with the Syrian opposition since Mosul fell to the group in June. "We told them that the problem is not just Islamic State, but the regime," he said.

To opposition fighters, al Qaeda has at times appeared more of an ally than the West during a civil war that has killed more than 190,000 people. Non-Islamist groups have clashed with the Nusra Front in some places, but in others they have fought together against Assad's forces in the same battles.

Western states decided early on in Syria's civil war not to arm the opposition with the kind of weaponry needed to unseat Assad, particularly the anti-aircraft missiles that could change the balance of power, fearing they would up with the extremists.

NO NO-FLY ZONE

French officials say Paris did supply some rocket launchers at the end of last year to rebels it considered "moderate", but that the advances of more radical Islamists forced it to stop.

The rebels' calls for a no-fly zone to protect them from the Syrian air force got nowhere, as Russia consistently blocked any meaningful action against Assad in the U.N. Security Council.

The result, say the mainstream rebels, was the collapse of their influence and the rapid rise of Islamist insurgent groups who have enjoyed more backing, notably from wealthy donors in the Gulf.

Stories abound of FSA-affiliated fighters or even entire brigades flipping over to Islamist factions, including Islamic State. Rebels say many have done so simply because the less radical brigades lacked the resources to keep fighting.

Among Washington's European allies, France has come closest to expressing frustration with its failure to support moderate rebels more effectively.

"Our logic is to say that, to face Islamic State and the horrors of Bashar al-Assad, the only solution is to strengthen aid to the moderate rebels in Syria who are not dead yet. We sense the Americans agree in theory, but remain dubious in practice," said a senior French diplomat.

Obama has now asked Congress for $500 million to train and equip moderate Syrian rebels as part of a strategy to "degrade and destroy" Islamic State. The CIA is already running a small and ostensibly covert effort to equip and train small groups of Assad's opponents.

Arab allies of the United States, principally the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have been major channels of military aid to the rebels. But their rivalry has meant they have sometimes backed competing groups.

Obama told NBC's Meet the Press that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan should be involved in the effort to defeat Islamic State. Qatar, which has been criticised for backing some of the more extreme groups, was not mentioned.

"IT'S HOW YOU PROTECT YOURSELF"

Some rebels say military support has already increased.

One carefully vetted rebel group, Hazem, has this year received anti-tank missiles not previously given to rebels. Speaking via the internet, Fares Bayoush, one of its commanders, said more had been delivered in recent weeks in response to the threat from Islamic State.

Bayoush did not say which state had supplied them, though earlier this year similar weapons were provided by Saudi Arabia.

In anticipation of wider U.S. support, some FSA-affiliated rebel groups have started reorganising themselves into what they say are bigger fighting forces with unified command structures.

In the northwestern province of Idlib, five factions announced the formation of a new, bigger formation on Sunday.

And Jamal Maarouf, a prominent rebel leader in the same province, this week declared war on Islamic State.

"Islamic State has a lot of weapons, they have wealth, they have oil. The regime - on the other hand - has Iran and Russia, so the FSA needs more sophisticated weapons to fight back," said Hussam Al-Marie, an FSA spokesman.

In Aleppo, where various militias have been fending off both Islamic State and government troops for several months, rebels say they are ready to work with the United States as long as the plan includes toppling Assad.

"Some rebels are for American intervention, and some are against it. The main sticking point is lack of clarity on how to deal with Assad," said Abu Mohamad al-Halabi, an opposition media activist who works with several brigades in Aleppo.

But critics say time may be running out.

"As more time passes, rest assured that, if and when America decides to carry out air strikes against Islamic State in Syria, it won't find a military faction with whom to collaborate," said the opposition fighter in Deir al-Zor.

"Most of the rebels will have sided with Islamic State against the United States by then," he said, speaking via the internet. "It's how you protect yourself here."

(Additional reporting by Dasha Afanasieva; Editing by Kevin Liffey)