Advertisement

Factbox: Hail or fail? five ways to tell if Brexit talks advanced

By Alastair Macdonald

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British and EU Brexit negotiators will say on Thursday how their first round of talks has gone. Here are five things to look for to gauge their progress toward a divorce settlement for Britain:

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
EU SAYS: Britain must pay a share of money the EU committed to spend when Britain was a member and will have to be paid out after it leaves on March 30, 2019. The EU executive has floated a ballpark figure around 60 billion euros ($70 billion).
UK SAYS: "Exorbitant; Go whistle for it". It will make "a fair settlement of rights and obligations" and some ministers say that may even mean a net transfer to London not Brussels. A statement last week saying mutual rights would persist after Brexit was a goodwill gesture. As a net contributor to the EU budget, post-2019 budget involvement would cost Britain money.
PROGRESS? The EU would like Britain to say that a net cash transfer, of whatever size, will come from London. Britain says it is not legally committed to long-term EU budget plans and may want the EU to repeat that a figure is far from being ready.

THE EXPAT LIFE
EU SAYS: EU citizens living in Britain on Brexit, as well as their future relatives, would enjoy all current rights for life. British people in Europe would be treated similarly by EU governments.
UK SAYS: Broadly speaking, yes. EU citizens would have same rights as Britons, which in some cases would mean weaker rights than they currently enjoy. Britain also wants cut-off date for keeping rights, as early as March 2017, and future children, spouses etc may not have same rights as now.
PROGRESS? Narrowing down areas of disagreement and making clear those points on which both sides agree to reassure people.

TELL IT TO THE JUDGE
EU SAYS: Citizens rights and whole withdrawal treaty must be overseen by EU rules and European Court of Justice.
UK SAYS: No way. People voted last year to end shared EU sovereignty. British judges are trusted worldwide and will hold this and future governments to international treaty obligations.
PROGRESS? Recognition that some compromise is needed since a deal will need to include some ways of resolving any disputes.

SMOOTHLY DOES IT
EU SAYS: It is ready for Britain to just drop out of all EU laws in March 2019, deal or no deal, but expects some kind of transition phase to give time to negotiate a free trade deal. Any transition would have to be strictly time-limited.
UK SAYS: Also ready for a disruptive "cliff edge" exit but, assuming both sides can see a future close relationship, would be ready for "implementation" periods of a couple of years.
PROGRESS? Unlikely to be much detail until trade talks get under way and both sides sketch out their future relationship ideas. But look out for both now assuming a transition phase.

PEACE IN IRELAND
EU SAYS: Wants to avoid new "hard" border between British Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland disrupting peace.
UK SAYS: Ditto.
PROGRESS? Again, don't expect much until after trade talks start since those will determine border arrangements. But this will be a good subject for both sides to sound harmonious on -- at least until they get into the nitty gritty of customs policy.

(Reporting by Alastair Macdonald; @macdonaldrtr; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)